Outside the Bubble?

It’s all turning out a bit rubbishy, this brexit. I’ve been cooking a lot to try and distract myself from it all. Even the government’s own forecasts suggest the economy will be screwed for the next 15 years at least. We’re lucky: my family can possibly afford the 8% cut.

It also makes clear that there’s a real trade-off between the country’s independence and financial well-being. The further away from our nearest and richest neighbour that we want to be, the more it will cost.

Over at the Daily Express and well-outside of my normal Guardian, FT and NYT stomping grounds, nobody seems to care much about the cost, not at first. Or if they do care, they blame it on the Tories currently in power first of all and somehow expect a second wave of more extreme brexit-MPs to make it all better.

The leading brexiteers in government have one and all fallen silent or unashamedly contradictory.

So when questioned by parliamentary committee about his contradictory statements, the brexit minister feels no shame at saying “That was then, this is now” about various comments he once made suggesting negotiations would be quick or easy or even advantageous. Arch-brexiteer Liam Fox, tasked with leading the department looking to set up new treaties with non-EU countries has been described by the NAO as woefully unprepared and under-resourced for the job ahead.

And it isn’t even about trade. The EU has around 1,000 bilateral treaties with third party countries such as the US, Chnia etc. that we currently benefit from. Some of them will be about trade, but plenty will cover other topics such as access to airspace, territorial waters, health and safety standards, security issues and information sharing. Almost all of our interactions with other countries are under-pinned by treaties made via the EU.

And we’re leaving that all behind. As the EU pointed out earlier this week, there is no guarantee that the third party countries will be willing to offer us the same terms once we’re out of the EU.

Even Liam Fox has told brexiteers outside of the government to develop a more realistic view of the process now that the minority government is basically propped up by the Irish DUP.

The prime minister didn’t have to call an election, but by doing so she managed to lose her (slim) majority. So now the DUP have the right veto over all the UK legislation, and they can never approve of anything that leads to a hard border in Ireland.

& that means that the UK minority government will be held to its Irish promises, to have an open border and regulatory alignment with the EU. That’s a commitment to follow all of the EU rules and regulations with absolutely no say over how they’re written. An open border in Ireland makes a mockery of the idea of limiting EU immigration. Forever.

So much for taking back control.

It’s all looking a bit rubbishy, and even over in the Express and the Mail, that’s getting harder to hide.