There is an excellent article published by the LSE which looks at the UK economy.
As the UK negotiates to leave the EU, the UK government has made much of the strength of our economy and our competitive advantage & it’s true that our growth and employment rates do not appear to have been damaged by the vote to leave the EU. Many businesses have been quick to identify potential opportunities associated with an independent approach to global trade.
But despite strong growth rates in 2016, the UK is not expected to experience GDP growth as strong as that anticipated in Europe and the US over the next several years. Our predicted growth rates of 1.6% in 2017 and 1% in 2018 are dwarfed by an anticipated 2.1-2.4% for the US and 2% in Germany. Part of this can be put down to the uncertainties of Brexit.
But slowing growth rates are also partly driven by long-standing structural issues in the UK economy.
The government likes to boast that the UK has recently achieved record levels of employment. But this has been accompanied by the growing insecurity of the labour market.
Surveys suggest that as much as 8% of the workforce is now under-employed – that is, wanting to work more hours than they do. The number of people on zero hours contracts has increased more than five-fold since 2007, to more than 900,000. Self-employment has increased from 13% of the workforce in 2008 to 15% today, yet self-employed people earn less on average than they did 20 years ago.
This insecurity is linked to the ‘flexibility’ of our labour market, which is ranked 8th of 140 in the World Economic Forum’s rankings, achieving the same score as the United States.
Normally, economists would expect high levels of employment to lead to increases in average real wages. But the reverse has happened. Indeed, the decline in UK real wages since the financial crisis has been the largest of all developed countries apart from Greece, Mexico, and Portugal.
Between 2007 and 2016, annual real wages grew 10.8% in Germany, 9.5% in France and 6.4% on average across the countries of the OECD. In the UK, however, they fell by 2.6%. If inflation continues to erode nominal wages for the next four years, as projected by Office for Budget Responsibility, the period since 2007 will rank as the longest period of earnings stagnation since the 1860s.
The low-pay, insecure labour market that exists in the UK is partly responsible for our poor performance on productivity. Measured by output per hour, productivity in the UK is 13% below the G7 average, and productivity growth has more or less completely stalled in the last decade. The disparity between the UK’s productivity and those of our major competitors is sometimes expressed in the form ‘it takes the average British worker five days to produce what a worker in Germany, France, or the US produces in four’.
But of course this is nothing to do with how hard people work: it arises from the much lower levels of investment in physical and human capital in the UK. Public and private investment is around 17% of GDP in the UK, more than 5% below the OECD average.
Corporate investment in the UK is much lower than in most of our major competitors. Corporate investment in fixed assets (not including construction) fell from 11% of GDP in 1997 to just 8% in 2014, compared with (for example) 12% in the USA. This is much lower than the rate of depreciation, meaning that the stock of capital in the UK is actually declining. This disparity is partly accounted for by the lower share of manufacturing in the UK economy, but is still lower even when this is taken into account. And it is especially reflected in the lower share of research and development investment, which is of particular concern given the importance of innovation in driving future growth.
The sectoral make-up of the UK’s economy has also led to the emergence of a large current account deficit: our trade deficit has exceeded 2% of GDP for 15 of the last 16 years. This is at least partly due to the decline of our manufacturing base, which, though familiar to most of the developed world, has been far more acute in the UK than in competitors such as Germany and France.
The depreciation of the pound which followed the EU referendum has helped to raise exports somewhat – but not by as much as might have been expected, because the UK is particularly reliant on a small number of exporting sectors (of which financial services is much the largest) and many exports are made up of imported components. The UK’s trade performance is a consistent indicator of the weakness of UK productivity and competitiveness.
As such, it is hard to accept the government’s view that the UK economy is in a strong position to cope with the challenges of Brexit. Underneath the headline figures it is actually much weaker than most of our major European competitors. And Brexit will make many of these weaknesses more difficult to address. That is why the IPPR Commission on Economic Justice is calling for a fundamental rethink of economic policy in the UK.
The first step is to acknowledge that we have a problem.
The Sacred Valley of the Incas or the Urubamba Valley is a valley in the Andes of Peru, 20 kilometres (12 mi) at its closest north of the Inca capital of Cusco.
Peru: Sacred Valley overview
The valley, runs generally west to east, is understood to include everything along the Urubamba River between the town and Inca ruins at Pisaq westward to Machu Piccu, 100 kilometres (62 mi) distant. The Sacred Valley floor has elevations above sea level along the river ranging from 3,000 metres (9,800 ft) at Pisac to 2,050 metres (6,730 ft) at the Urubamba River below the citadel of Macchu Piccu.
So most tourists start their trip to Peru in the valley or even straight to Macchu Pichu which is relatively low in terms of altitude sickness.
Though as a Cuzcena pointed out, setting the Cuzco airport at right angles to the valley means every international tourist is obliged to fly into Lima and catch a second smaller plane to Cuzco, where most of them want to be. It was said with a degree of bitterness that’s hard to dispute. Given a choice, we wouldn’t have bothered with Lima, and it’s difficult to imagine any other tourist having a different view.
sacred valley
On both sides of the river, the mountains rise much higher, especially to the south where two prominent mountains overlook the valley: Sahuasiray, 5,818 metres (19,088 ft) and Veronica , 5,680 metres (18,640 ft) in elevation.
The glaciers of these mountains provide water for crops and for the supply of towns throughout the Valley, though as the world heats up, the glaciers seem to be on the retreat. The intensely cultivated valley floor is about 1 kilometre (0.62 mi) wide on average. Side valleys and agricultural terraces expand the cultivatable area, though many of the terraces are unused, either because they’re protected as part of a historic site, or because after the Spaniards the irrigation system broke down and can’t be reconstructed.
The Sacred Valley was the most important area for maize production in the heartland of the Inca Empire and access through the valley to tropical areas facilitated the import of products such as coca leaf and chile peppers to Cuzco.
The climate breaks into two seasons, wet (October – April) and dry and monthly average temperatures range between 15.4 °C (59.7 °F) in November, the warmest month, to 12.2 °C (54.0 °F) in July, the coldest month. At this time of year, the sun rises at around 6am and sets around 6.30pm though it’s position at the equator means there’s probably only half an hour difference whatever the time of year. The difference in temperature between night and day is much more extreme. Waking early before sunrise and the temperatures outside were below zero. As soon as the sun came out (which was very quickly) the temperature rose to around 20C. So having been warned to take Winter clothes, we actually enjoyed a British Summer time (yes, it really is mostly 20-25C at the height of Summer here).
Our first trip from our hotel in the Valley was to the site at Ollantaytambo, mainly because as the furthest day trip from Cuzco, numbers are a lot lower in the morning.
Ollantaytambo is a town and an Inca archaeological site in southern Peru partway down the Sacred Valley, northwest of the city of Cusco.
Ollantaytambo from the terraces
Most importantly as a visitor from sea level, it is at an altitude of around 2,792 metres (9,160 ft) above sea level. During the Inca Empire, Ollantaytambo was the royal estate of Emperor Pacahuti who conquered the region, and comes up a lot in conversation with guides travelling the country. He built the town and a ceremonial center.
At the time of the Spanish Conquest, it served as a stronghold for Manco Inca Yupanqui, leader of the Inca resistance.
Nowadays, it is an important tourist attraction on account of its Inca ruins and its location en route to one of the most common starting points for the four-day, three-night hike known as the Inca Trail. It’s where you’ll catch the train to Machu Pichu, if starting in the Valley.
View down towards Ollantaytambo town from Inca terraces
The main settlement at Ollantaytambo has an orthogonal layout with four longitudinal streets crossed by seven parallel streets. At the center of this grid, the Incas built a large plaza that may have been up to four blocks large; it was open to the east and surrounded by halls and other town blocks on its other three sides. All blocks on the southern half of the town were built to the same design; each comprised two kancha, walled compounds with four one-room buildings around a central courtyard.
Ollantaytambo dates from the late 15th century and has some of the oldest continuously occupied dwellings in South America. Its layout and buildings have been altered to different degrees by later constructions, for instance, on the southern edge of the town an Inca esplanade with the original entrance to the town was rebuilt as a Plaza de Armas surrounded by colonial and republican buildings. The plaza at the center of the town also disappeared as several buildings were built over it in colonial times.
Traditional Peruvian Courtyard Ollantaytambo
‘Araqhama is a western part of the main settlement, across the Patakancha River; it features a large plaza, called Manyaraki, surrounded by constructions made out of adobe and semi-cut stones.
Traditional Peruvian House
And as a tourist town there are people willing to open up their courtyards and allow you total a look inside the walls. Each “house” consists of a single room with a mezzanine. Cooking is over an open fire with a hole in the roof to allow the smoke to escape.
Guinea Pigs traditional peruvian Snack
And the minute someone rattles a bunch of barley grass the ever-present guinea pigs rush towards the food. They’re obviously hugely picturesque, even when the guide points at the largest and fattest as next week’s likely lunch.
Family SkullsOfferings for Luck
Towns along the main road have endless restaurants with ladies standing at the side waving rotisserie guinea pigs looking very like roast rats, in an attempt to lure people in for lunch – not tempted. But the house also includes a lot of totems or charms which are a bit gruesome and sit somewhat uneasily with the catholicism we were expecting, including lama foetuses (apparently very expensive), skulls from dead relatives etc.
These buildings have a much larger area than their counterparts in the main settlement, they also have very tall walls and oversized doors. To the south there are other structures, but smaller and built out of fieldstones. ‘Araqhama has been continuously occupied since Inca times, as evidenced by the Roman Catholic church on the eastern side of the plaza.
Ollantaytambo: grain Silos
And up on the hills above there are food stores where maize and dried potatoes would be put away in the good years for the expected years of fallow during el nino etc. The potatoes at least look like the most unappetising, stones but in times of hunger they would fill you up and keep a family going. The Incas storehouses or qullqas were built out of out of fieldstones on the hills surrounding Ollantaytambo. Their location at high altitudes, where there is more wind and lower temperatures, defended their contents against decay. To enhance this effect, the Ollantaytambo qullqas feature ventilation systems. It is believed that they were used to store the production of the agricultural terraces built around the site. Grain would be poured in the windows on the uphill side of each building, then emptied out through the downhill side window.
Walkway down from the terracesView doen to OllanttaytamboRuins at the base of Ollantaytambo complexBath of the Princess OllanttaytamboBath of the Princess Ollanttaytambo
To the north of Manyaraki there are several sanctuaries with carved stones, sculpted rock faces, and elaborate waterworks, they include the Templo de Agua and the Baño de la Ñusta. ‘Araqhama is bordered to the west by Cerro Bandolista, a steep hill on which the Incas built a ceremonial center. The part of the hill facing the town is occupied by the terraces of Pumatallis, framed on both flanks by rock outcrops.
Due to impressive character of these terraces, the Temple Hill is commonly known as the Fortress, but the main functions of this site were always religious. The main access to the ceremonial center is a series of stairways that climb to the top of the terrace complex. At this point, the site is divided into three main areas: the Middle sector, directly in front of the terraces; the Temple sector, to the south; and the Funerary sector, to the north.
And it’s an excellent introduction to the incredible engineering and stonework of the Inca sites, with dry stone walls full of precision cut blocks and trapezoidal doorways (no arches). The Temple sector is built out of cut and fitted stones in contrast to the other two sectors of the Temple Hill which are made out of fieldstone. It is accessed via a stairway that ends on a terrace with a half finished gate and the Enclosure of the Ten Niches, a one-room building.
Ollantaytambo WalkwayOllantaytambo terracesTourists on the Inca terraces, Ollantaytambo
Inca Terraces, Ollantaytambo
Behind them there is an open space which hosts the Platform of the Carved Seat and two unfinished monumental walls. The main structure of the whole sector is the Sun Temple, an uncompleted building which features the Wall of the Six Monoliths. The Middle and Funerary sectors have several rectangular buildings, some of them with two floors; there are also several fountains in the Middle sector.
The valleys of the Urubamba and Patakancha rivers along Ollantaytambo are covered by an extensive set of agricultural terraces or andenes which start at the bottom of the valleys and climb up the surrounding hills. The andenes permitted farming on otherwise unusable terrain; they also allowed the Incas to take advantage of the different ecological zones created by variations in altitude. Terraces at Ollantaytambo were built to a higher standard than common Inca agricultural terraces, for instance, they have higher walls made of cut stones instead of rough fieldstones. This type of high-prestige terracing is also found in other Inca royal estates such as Chinchero, Pisaq and Yucay
View across the terraces OllantaytamboView across the terraces Ollantaytambo
View across the terraces Ollantaytambo
A set of sunken terraces start south of Ollantaytambo’s Plaza de Armas, stretching all the way to the Urubamba River. They are about 700 meters long, 60 meters wide and up to 15 meters below the level of surrounding terraces; due to their shape they are called Callejón, the Spanish word for alley. Land inside Callejón is protected from the wind by lateral walls which also absorb solar radiation during the day and release it during the night; this creates a microclimate zone 2 to 3°C warmer than the ground above it. These conditions allowed the Incas to grow species of plants native to lower altitudes that otherwise could not have flourished at this site.
Ollantaytambo terraces
View across the terraces OllantaytamboOllantaytambo terracesOllantaytambo terraces
The unfinished structures at the Temple Hill and the numerous stone blocks that litter the site indicate that it was still undergoing construction at the time of its abandonment. Some of the blocks show evidences of having been removed from finished walls, which provides evidence that a major remodeling effort was also underway. It is unknown which event halted construction at the Temple Hill, likely candidates include a war of succession, the Spanish Conquest of Peru and the retreat of Manco Inca from Ollantaytambo to Vilcabamba.
Ollantaytambo religious complexOllantaytambo tourist marketWaiting for the tourists
At almost the opposite end of the valley, much nearer to Cusco, lies the citadel of Pisaq which lies atop a hill at the entrance to the valley.
The ruins are separated along the ridge into four groups: P’isaqa, Inti Watana, Qalla Q’asa, and Kinchiraqay. Inti Watana group includes the Temple of the Sun, baths, altars, water fountains, a ceremonial platform, and an inti watana, a volcanic outcrop carved into a “hitching post for the Sun” (or Inti).
Pisaq terraces
The angles of its base suggest that it served to define the changes of the seasons. Qalla Q’asa, which is built onto a natural spur and overlooks the valley, is known as the citadel.With military, religious, and agricultural structures, the site served at least a triple purpose. Researchers believe that Písac defended the southern entrance to the Sacred Valley, while Choquequirao defended the western entrance, and the fortress at Ollantaytambo the northern.
Inca Pisac controlled a route which connected the Inca Empire with the border of the rain forest. The Inca constructed agricultural terraces on the steep hillside, which are still in use today. They created the terraces by hauling richer topsoil by hand from the lower lands. The terraces enabled the production of surplus food, more than would normally be possible at altitudes as high as 11,000 fee
We tried this made with oyster mushrooms in Peru – a real hit and ideal for a starter or extended to make one of a group of salads
Serve either in a bowl or glass or as a topping for toasted bread. Don’t use much hot pepper — just enough to give the ceviche a little heat.
Make Ahead: The mushrooms need to be refrigerated in the marinade overnight.
The flavors in these marinated mushrooms are what you would expect to taste when enjoying ceviche, only without the seafood.
Ingredients:
2 roasted garlic cloves
1lb oz mushrooms, sliced thin
1 small red onion, sliced
1 red bell pepper, finely diced
2/3 cup freshly squeezed lime juice
1 tbsp chopped coriander leaf
1/4 teaspoon honey (or agave for vegan)
1 teaspoon finely chopped jalapeno
1 tbsp olive oil
1 teaspoon kosher salt
1/8 teaspoon black pepper
Directions:
In a cast iron skillet, roast 2 garlic cloves until brown on each side. Mash the garlic and place in a large bowl with the mushrooms, red onion and bell peppers.
In a medium bowl, combine the remaining ingredients, whisk well then pour over mushrooms. Cover and refrigerate at least a few hours, or overnight.
Our recent trip to S America started and ended in Lima, the capital of Peru, but all advice was clear: pass through quickly and don’t stop any longer than absolutely necessary, not so much because of any danger but just because there are more interesting places to be.
So we flew in, stayed overnight at the airport hotel (just across a zebra crossing from the airport terminal) and on the way back from la Paz, were left with just 6 hours to kill, too short a time for the more traditional tourist neighbourhood of Miraflores.
& that is how we arrived on a walking (and lunching) tour of Callao.
The port district of Callao was founded in 1537 by Spanish colonists and quickly became the principle port for Spanish commerce in the Pacific. At the height of the Spanish Viceroyalty, almost all goods from Peru, Argentina and Bolivia bound for Spain passed through Callao, and then on to Panama before the Atlantic crossing.It flourished in the 19th century, which saw the building of grand plazas and South America’s first railway. Its fortunes began to decline in the 20th century and historical monuments, such as the Real Felipe fortress, Plaza Grau and other architectural gems seemed destined for oblivion.
A sign on the streets of Callao reads, Del puñal al pincel (from dagger to paintbrush). A couple of years ago, few visitors to Peru would have set foot here.
More than just down-at-heel, this main port district of Lima was downright dangerous, notorious as a haunt of gangs smuggling cocaine worldwide.
From an era of economic boom and the affluence that comes with it, Callao had suffered progressive economic decline in the ensuing years. Basically the area became, and still shows more than a few signs of being a slum.
You would not choose to walk around it alone of a night. But projects like Callao Monumental are at least trying to bring regeneration and visitors to the area, so it’s a great time to visit the fresh and edgy district as part of any tailormade trip Peru.
Callao Monumental is an art project, showcasing some of the country’s best street art, contemporary galleries and artists. It showcases contemporary urban art, champions local artists and engages with the community through its outreach and regeneration work. The hero of the initiative is an Israeli. Roughly translating as shooting star, “Fugaz” is a private initiative by an Israeli businessman and art lover, which aims to restore Callao through art and culture, and offers locals an alternative to a life of theft and drug trafficking.
The transformation began with 18 artists, 15 walls and one fractured community. “We didn’t want the locals to feel like we were invading; we wanted them to join in. Especially as Callao is the only place in Lima where, when you die, a graffito of your face is painted on the grave,” Angie Pelosi from Fugaz told me.
The heart of the project is located in the historic Ronald Building, a covered market built by a British engineer, and renovated specifically for this project. It consists of six floors of independent restaurants, artesanal fabric boutiques, galleries and studio spaces for resident artists.
It provides a starting point, plus an opportunity for retail therapy, lunch or just a cup of coffee and sit down after a walk around the barrio.
On the ground floor, you walk through an impressive arcade of galleries and boutiques. The high vaulted stained glass roof allows light to pour in and reflect off the white marble floors. Wondering up through the maze of hidden staircases and corridors you discover exhibitions of paintings, photography and installation art.
On a busy Friday we came across resident artists at work, setting up for a photography exhibition, chatting with them about their work.
All six floors of the crumbling Casa Ronald, built in the early 20th century by English-educated financier Guillermo Ronald, with cathedral-high ceilings and marble columns, has been restored by Fugaz and transformed into an arts hub.Elsewhere in Callao, independent galleries such as Evolución and Bufeo have opened, design stores including Lima Modern and Balkanica are moving in, and leading sculptor Victor Delfin has set up shop there.While artworks costing hundreds of dollars are aimed at the wealthy Limeños who are now discovering this formerly no-go barrio, the galleries all commit to working with the community and employing local people. Young chalacos work as guides and can attend creative workshops, life-coaching talks, Muay Thai classes for those that perform well at school and English lessons.
There is also a rooftop terrace, well worth a stop for the spectacular view of the surrounding area, including the harbour and the modern commercial port, the naval base and the historic Real Felipe fortress.At the weekends, when the community project tends to arrange more events, there’s a bar up there and sometimes live music – a great spot for a sun downer, taking in the view.
Murals by local and international street artists now grace the walls but that was only the beginning of the new face of Callao Monumental, the historic centre. Artists, businesspeople and chalacos, as Callao residents are called, have all got involved: they include grandmother Cristina, whose children are all in prison, and Luis, better known as El Padre, who takes in street children.
The change in Callao has been remarkable, with crime reported to have fallen dramatically. “I’ve noticed how people are coming together,” Pelosi says. “They’re starting to care about their community. Even the police have seen an improvement.”
Everyone warns you before travelling to Peru, sometimes a bit too enthusiastically, about altitude sickness. In fact our recent trip was quite well planned, skipping over Lima at sea level to the relatively low lying Machu Pichu (2430m) through the Sacred Valley around Ollantaytambo (2792m) to Cuzco (3399m) and the heights of La Paz (3640m) and Uyuni (3700m)
And once you arrive the advice is generally good and sensible stuff: take it easy, go slowly, drink lots of water, eat light foods only, don’t drink or smoke.
Even so, whilst walking along the flat becomes straightforward and downhill a breeze, even after two weeks anything more than a couple of steps up and we were all wiped out. Just rushing to get things ready in the morning could leave us panting for breath,
And they don’t warn you about the very basic impact of such dry air – your nose dries out making night time sleeping less pleasant than it could be. Your mouth and throat become very dry so you drink more and more. The UV light will burn easily and the bright light will persuade your brain that it should feel hot, whilst the wind actually keeps you quite cool. Vaseline on the nose and mouth isn’t a great look but was surprisingly practical.
But absolutely no one tells you about what it will feel like when you return to sea level, how wet the air will feel and how full of “stuff”
It was a good trip but I’m glad to be home, sleeping in my own bed. Mostly.
I had both of my babies at home, the first in a small two up two down terraced house, the second in the slightly larger house that we still live in, just a couple of streets away. Both are within 5 minutes drive of a major teaching hospital.
My girls were born safe and healthy, with no problems or complications. I was lucky.
In my first delivery, the midwife arrived early, which is to say, she set out after the second phone call because, she’d had a bad experience the night before (the cord caught around the baby’s neck as it was being pushed out, and she had struggled to keep the baby alive). Since it turns out that I’m the kind of woman who has 3 hour labours (the average is closer to 12 hours) if she’d left it much later she’d have arrived too late.
The second midwife (one attends for the mother, one attends for the baby) failed to arrive in time. Since she’s the one who brings the pain relief (air and gas) it was a short but painful birth, with a first degree tear (not stitched – should have been stitched, never rely on nature to fix a raggedy labial tear).
But in conversation about the Vicky Foxcroft article afterwords, I took exception with one commentator who suggested that planned home births were the reason for the high still birth rate in the UK. It’s just not factually correct.
Babies are classed as stillborn if they die at any point after 28 weeks of pregnancy, up to the birthing process itself which is when half occur. Over 98% of stillbirths happen in low and middle-income countries. Pakistan has a rate of 43.1 for every 1,000 children born – that’s one in every 23 mothers finding out their baby is dead.
But bad things happen everywhere.
For every 1,000 babies born in Britain, 2.9 are stillborn (based on at least 28 weeks of gestation) – more than twice the rate of 1.4 in Iceland. Britain is now 21 out of 35 of the world’s wealthy countries according to the Lancet Stillbirth Series (2016). Croatia, Poland and Czech Republic have better stillbirth rates than the UK.
Equally worrying is the UK’s annual rate of reduction, which is now just 1.4% – placing us 114th globally for progress on stillbirths.
So what aren’t we doing as well as we might?
The Netherlands, which has cut its rates by almost 7%, hasn’t just improved care during the birth, but focused on women’s health while they are pregnant and even before that too. In particular, it has had a huge programme to reduce maternal smoking, as well as structured investment in analysis and understanding of each stillbirth.
Here in the UK, underlying the overall rate of 2.9 per 1000, the survey found mothers in the most deprived areas were up to twice as likely to experience a stillbirth as the country’s most affluent mums – although that research only covered the years up to 2005. Poorer mothers are more likely to smoke and more likely to be either significantly overweight or underweight, all risk factors for stillbirth.
And this is why I think I was so offended by the references to home birth in the context of still birth. In order to reduce the rate of stillbirth in the UK, it’s important to understand the risks, where they arise and what can be done to mitigate them.
Both the UK and Iceland have tiny levels of home births, both around 2% of annual births. Stillbirth, like most birth, is a hospital phenomena in the main (98%) of cases. If we want to improve our rates of stillbirth, we need to tackle the real causes.
10 babies are stillborn every day in the UK.
In women with a BMI over 30, the risk rises to 1 in 100 (from 2.9 per thousand). An increasing BMI is associated with an increased incidence of pre-eclampsia, gestational hypertension, macrosomia, induction of labour and caesarean deliveries.
Underweight mothers also have an enhanced risk of stillbirth where being underweight (a BMI of < 19.9 kg / m2) has been shown to be associated with an increased risk of preterm deliveries, low birth weight and anaemia and a decreased risk of pre-eclampsia, gestational diabetes, obstetric intervention and post-partum haemorrhage
Women who smoke have an enhanced risk of stillbirth. In meta-analysis research carried out by BMC Public Health smoking during pregnancy was significantly associated with a 47% increase in the odds of stillbirth.
Around half of all stillbirths are linked to placental complications.
Other causes include bleeding before or during labour, placental abruption, pre-eclampsia, a problem with the umbilical cord, obstetric cholestasis, a genetic physical defect in the baby, pre-existing diabetes, and infection in the mother that also affects the baby.
Reduced fetal movement is a good indicator of stillbirth, with slowing down of movement noticed by the mother in two out of three stillbirths.
Still, Dr David Richmond, consultant gynaecologist and president of the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists, describes the survey as a “wake-up call”.
In the UK, there is still much to be done to ensure our rate of progress is as good as the best in Europe.
Through the Each Baby Counts initiative, we are this year beginning to undertake a structured review of each and every stillbirth that occurs during labour in term pregnancies to help identify common risk factors, learn from what went wrong and apply the lessons in maternity units across the country.
– DR DAVID RICHMOND
A recent report by the NHS Saving Babies’ Lives – NHS England gives recommendations that aim to reduce the rates of stillbirth by half by 2030.
One of the most striking observations is how often poor fetal growth corresponds with stillbirth, consistent with a recent Panorama programme that suggested regular scans could halve the UK rate of still birth by tracking growth and highlighting failure to thrive. The latter can often be addressed by inducing early births.
The four key recommendations are based on extending best practice around the country and include:
Reducing smoking in pregnancy
Risk assessment and surveillance for fetal growth restriction
Raising awareness of reduced fetal movement
Effective fetal monitoring during labour
None of these relate to home births. All of the recommendations require joined up, consistent maternal care with time to be spent monitoring, managing, helping women to manage their lives and their pregnancies.
Why do people write into comments sections on the web? What are they trying to achieve?
Driving along listening to BBC Radio4, I was struck by the “Thought for the Day” speaker. Before speaking or writing, according to Hindu scripture, we obliged to consider:
are we being honest?
is what we are saying true?
is it necessary to say or write?
will someone be hurt or offended by what we are saying or writing? and.
can we be kinder, more respectful in what we say or write, if this is really something necessary and required?
Mostly when I look through the comments sections, I find comments that are dismissive, sometimes of the article, but often of the author just because…. Comments are often off topic, often abusive and unhelpful. They are very often rude.
Sometimes there seems to be an attempt to show off, to demonstrate a superiority of understanding or knowledge. It often falls apart if challenged and then the so-called “experts” often become rude and obnoxious when the absurdity of what they’re saying becomes clear.
The weirdest ones, are where misogynists start posting comments after a vaguely feminist article. The comments are short and dismissive, consistent and repetitive, building a steady rhythm, to a crescendo. Reading through them, it becomes very clear that they are groups totally committed to stroking each other’s egos more than anything else. It’s like one long mastubatory sequence, short key strokes, pressing each other’s favourite keys and buzzwords.
They need to get a room.
Very, very occasionally comments are positive. Even where people disagree, there are rare occasions where they do so politely and with respect.
In order to balance the books, the UK government can either raise more money through taxes or cut the amount of money it spends. For the last few decades, the emphasis has all been on cutting costs, in particular the cost of welfare though the emphasis has always been placed on culling “undeserving poor” rather than pensioners.
The overall breakdown of spending lumps a great deal together under the heading “social protection” which needs to be broken down further in order to understand where the money goes.
Other large areas of expenditure are health and education but these are difficult to cut without offending great swathes of the population.
Government departments are essentially organised to manage these budgets.
The welfare budget total is temptingly large and yet political sensitivities make it difficult to cut. It’s also important to remember that the UK spends less on welfare relative to other developed countries.
The charts show that about half of welfare goes to pensioners, a very sensitive group since they are sensitive to small changes and tend to vote in significant numbers. The next largest amounts go to families with a disabled person, and support and housing for low income families,the majority of whom are in work.
Less than 1 in 5 households receive any housing benefit. Unemployment benefits make up a very small percentage of all social spending.
Currently UK pensioners are guaranteed a state pension the increases in line with the so-called triple lock, the lower of 2.5%, any increase in living costs or any increase in average wages. The amount paid is not generous at just £6,200 but still, there is no rationale for setting a minimum of 2.5% in times of low inflation and flat salaries unless you believe pensions are too low.
As a demographic group, pensioners are no longer the worst off in UK society so I would look to abandon the triple lock and reduce it to the lowest of either inflation (living costs) or salary increases.
Inflation is currently running at 0.6% whilst salaries are flat. Abandoning the commitment to 2.5% increases would save the government around £1.3m (1.9% of £70m) in the first year and potentially every year thereafter.
The story of the left ought to be a narrative of hope and progress. The greatest problem with the academic left is that it has become fundamentally aristocratic, writing in bizarre jargon that makes cliches seem abstruse. If you can’t explain your ideal to a fairly intelligent 12-year-old, it’s probably your own fault. We need a narrative that speaks to millions of ordinary people. It all starts with reclaiming the language of progress.
So we are moving into an age where people may or may not work, due neither rhyme nor reason within their own control. Jobs are increasingly temporary, precarious and either multiple or absent. Think of the technology changes that have brought us uber as a working model.
Working poverty is going to be increasing feature of our lives. Rather than rushing to reinforce a rather Calvinist view of all paid work as morally good and uplifting, in and of itself, whilst totally disregarding and undervaluing the unpaid contributions of carers everywhere, let’s reinvent the model. How? Universal basic income.
Every adult in the UK should be paid the equivalent of the standard pension ie. currently £6,200 with unto £2,000 paid for people also looking after children.
It isn’t a huge sum for an individual to live on. It is set at the amount of pension, just below the JRF estimate of a living wage (about £7,000 per person per annum) for purely political reasons: it would be impossible to justify paying more to the unemployed of working age, than to the unemployed post-retirement, even though the latter should probably be enjoying a life post mortgage with greater disposable income.
No one of working age is going to want to live on such a small amount alone. People will still find plenty of reasons to work. It is no more than a safety net that should work in our brave new precarious world.
To be practical, it’s a benefit that could only realistically be offered to British citizens, the pull factor from poorer countries would just be too big to offer it as an unconditional benefit. Currently everyone in the UK reaching the age of 18 is given a national insurance number, a universal identifier that in theory allows our tax and benefits system to work efficiently and personally. The universal income could therefore only be paid to those people living in the UK with a national insurance number, which would be dependant upon either being British born and turning 18 or living and working in the UK.
Personal taxation would require companies to pay national insurance contributions to cover the universal basic income (say £6,200) for each and every job, probably through 50% deductions of salary. At this rate an individual would have to earn £ 12,400 to cover their welfare cost.
An individual earning the equivalent of today’s average salary £27,000 pa, would more than cover any cost of this benefit for themselves – they would receive £6,200 from the state and £20,800 from their employer directly, subject to income tax rules.
The rates of tax would have to change.
Without change, the new universal credit would be deducted pre-tax, then a £10,000 tax exempt band applied and only then would the 25% tax rate be applied to £10,800. They would pay (net) just £2,700 tax rather than the current tax liability of £4,250 which would be unaffordable. If basic rate tax was increased to 40%, the tax paid under the new system would end up being much the same ie. £4,320 after receiving £6,200 from the state directly, plus £10,000 from the employer tax free, plus £6,480 taxed (£22,680).
Although an individual ends up paying very slightly more in tax, they have a lot more certainty in their income thanks to the universal income.
People are no longer able to work themselves out of the poverty they were born into. Reforms? Let’s reinvent the welfare state and eradicate poverty for good – now that’s an investment that will pay for itself.
This could be the basis of a fundamental change to the way we look at work and welfare, possibly the only practical, humane response to the changing work patterns we are seeing in the developed world. It could form the basis of a positive, socialist message, one that could be the basis of an ongoing and constructive engagement with the electorate.
Efficiency, Productivity? That should be the point of centre-left socialist policy. Every pound invested in a homeless person returns triple or more in savings on care, police and court costs. Let’s imagine what the eradication of child poverty might achieve. Solving these kinds of problems is a lot more efficient than “managing” them.
But first, the underdog socialists will have to stop wallowing in their moral superiority. Everyone who believes themselves progressive should be a beacon of not just energy but ideas, not only indignation but hope, and equal parts ethics and hard sell. Ultimately, what the underdog socialist lacks is the most vital ingredient for political change: the conviction that there truly is a better way.
The UK Government income is based around tax receipts, typically:
Income tax (main tax rate is 20%)
National Insurance
VAT (20% most goods and services)
Corporation tax (main rate 21-20%)
Council Tax (local government)
Business rates
Excise duties (alcohol, cigarettes)
Other taxes include (stamp duty, carbon tax, airport tax, inheritance tax, capital gains)
Most tax is collected by HM Revenue and Custom.
However, the central government also get revenue from other sources which can be identified through {public sector finances at ONS (less detailed). Total tax revenue was around £90 billion.
Since the UK government has mainlined on balancing the books, and we live in an ever more expensive world where we all want more and more “stuff” including the government, then essentially every UK government is faced with either cutting spending or increasing revenue.
Since taxing more is unpopular, the emphasis has always been on trying to cut spending but we have had quite a few stealth taxes, increases to the lesser know or lesser observed taxes such as national insurance. One other wheeze is to push expenditure off onto local government, whilst limiting them to raise additional taxes through the local Council tax thus making local government the villain of the piece.
So if I was in charge of the government, what would I think about doing?
Honesty. Transparency. Fairness.
Let’s start with openly combining income tax and national insurance. In peoples minds they monitor the former very tightly and the latter barely at all and yet, they are all essentially the same tax, used interchangeably.
So although the headlines focused on raising the tax limit for income tax to above £10,000, it totally ignores the NI contributions payable from £8,060. Although the base rate of tax discussed is said to be 20%, taking into account NI means the lower effective rate of tax that most people pay is actually more than 30%.
We should be honest about this.
Honest. Transparent. Fair.
Income tax in the UK is largely taxed at source, deducted from pay packets before people have access to it and therefore for most people entirely unavoidable. It is essentially a progressive tax which takes a bigger % of income from higher earners. It is therefore also a fairly redistributive system.
It seems unreasonable to charge anyone more in tax than they are able to keep. Something feels unreasonable or unfair about the idea of taxing more than 50% of a person’s efforts but looking at the graphic above, it seems clear that aside from some very minor tweaks when child benefit is taxed and allowances lost, the highest effective rate of tax is just over 40%.
So what would happen if we set the basic rate threshold at £10,000 for the new combined all-income tax (income tax + NI) setting the rate at the current effective level of around 32%? This would be with a view to tweaking the rate up or down once people had got used to the combined all-income tax and the effects could be quantified in practice.
More of the poorest people should be taken out of tax entirely by avoiding NI contributions. Most people would pay slightly more at the lower rate (£600×32%- £192) which would hopefully pay for the lost NI income
And then suppose we leave the higher rate threshold unchanged but set the higher rate of combined all-income tax at 50% ie. higher than the current effective rate of 42% but not gouging. We should abandon all the claw-backs for child benefit and lower tax thresholds. The system would be simpler and easier to understand. It feels honest, transparent and fair.
Although the income tax system is progressive, other taxes are more regressive.
At 20% VAT tends to be more regressive. People on low income have a higher marginal propensity to consume. Therefore, the VAT they pay is a higher % of their total income. People on high income will spend more and will pay more VAT, but they will have a lower marginal propensity to consume (People on high incomes can afford to save a higher % of income). Therefore, VAT will be a smaller % of income spent. The regressive nature of VAT is slightly compensated by the fact that in theory, necessities like food (e.g. cold pastries, cabbages) don’t have VAT. VAT is supposed to be targeted at luxury goods. It’s also worth noting that a significant amount of income received by people on low income comes from the state in the form of benefits.
Other taxes like excise duties on cigarettes and taxes on alcohol are much more regressive. Smoking rates tend to be higher amongst people with lower incomes. Also, it will be a much bigger % of income than for rich smokers. We persuade ourselves that these taxes are for the health benefit of the individuals involved.
We could therefore consider intruding a sugar tax, on similar grounds, that high-sugar foods, especially those targeted at children are bad for their health. This is likely to be highly regressive since obesity is more commonplace amongst people on low income but it’s also likely to be popular with the voting public because of it’s health benefit.
Council Tax, a UK tax on domestic properties, can also be quite regressive and arguably unfair. People living in expensive areas end up having high housing costs, but also a higher council tax band. Arguably a fairer method of collecting local tax would be a local income tax but there are sizeable barriers to implementing any change. the minute a widow is forced out of her large (and expensive) house to pay her tax bill, is the minute a government gets into trouble.
Business rates are the property taxes charged on non-domestic problems and have recently been amended to allow local government to retain 50% amount raised rather than paying into a central pot and having money allocated back.
Inheritance tax raises a relatively small amount of money each year, at around £4.6 million a year but obviously this is in part because of significant tax planning for large scale landowners. The new Duke of Westminster will inherit control of an estate (held in trust) worth in excess of £9billion and pay no tax whatsoever.
It is not the business of the government to encourage the build up of inherited wealth within the hands of the privileged few. Any inheritance should be taxed as a receipt by the beneficiaries in the year in which the gain is realised, as part of the combined all-income tax. For people on low income, an inheritance would be subject to the standard tax bands and rates, treated as a top layer of income.
Since of most people the bulk of any inheritance is property, and the capital gains on houses are not the result of any intrinsic hard work or merit, it seems unreasonable to encourage windfalls for the next generation through any tax system.
It also seems unreasonable to ask the state to fund care in old age in order to preserve any such inheritance for the next generation. Treating any inheritance as windfall income should reduce the temptation to preserve wealth at the expense of paying for a decent standard of living, including care costs in old age.
Another much discussed problem with the UK tax system is the scope for having offshore accounts and avoiding paying tax through tax avoidance schemes. Tax avoidance is often easier by people with high incomes. Unfortunately it is also perhaps the most expensive problem to address since high income people can afford high fees for good advice.
So my no doubt incredibly unpopular suggestions for change on the “income” side of the puzzle include:
Combining Income Tax and National Insurance
Set the threshold for basic all-income tax at £10,000
Set the tax rate for higher rate tax payers for the new all-income tax at 50%
Abolish the various tweaks re: child benefit and removing nil bands
Introduce a sugar tax
Abolish inheritance tax and treat any inheritance as a windfall to be subject to the all-income tax as a top layer of income.
Not going to happen.
All about me!
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The port district of Callao was founded in 1537 by Spanish colonists and quickly became the principle port for Spanish commerce in the Pacific. At the height of the Spanish Viceroyalty, almost all goods from Peru, Argentina and Bolivia bound for Spain passed through Callao, and then on to Panama before the Atlantic crossing.
There is also a rooftop terrace, well worth a stop for the spectacular view of the surrounding area, including the harbour and the modern commercial port, the naval base and the historic Real Felipe fortress.At the weekends, when the community project tends to arrange more events, there’s a bar up there and sometimes live music – a great spot for a sun downer, taking in the view.
