By the end of this month, perhaps as early as next week, the prime minister will have signed and dispatched a letter notifying the European Council of Britain’s decision to leave the European Union through the provisions of article 50 of the Lisbon treaty. There will be no turning back. The most serious negotiation in our post-war history will commence. It must conclude within two years – unless the remaining EU member states determine that the negotiating period can be extended. It will shape our new settlement for decades to come.
It has been suggested that there is a 50:50 chance that no deal will be struck and the UK will bounce out of the EU onto WTO rules only. The UK government as represented by David Davis and Boris Johnson could not even bring themselves to agree as to whether any contingency plans for WTO rules were being in put in place on Sunday.
At this juncture in our history, we face a crucial choice. Will this be a moment for national renewal, where we courageously confront our problems, or will we simply attempt to muddle through? Nothing would be more British than the latter – and that would appear to be where both sides of the Brexit divide are taking us. I am now entirely convinced that whilst we are where we are, none of the leading “out” campaigners currently in government, and certainly none of those in government who campaigned to remain, believe that brexit is going to be good for the country.
As time has passed, committed brexit campaigners such as David Davis and Liam Fox, have come face to face with the many many complexities staring them in the face as part of the negotiations, not least of which is managing the still rand expectations of some Tory back-benchers.
So if the government is increasing aware of the looming disaster, and is with the best intentions set upon mitigating the disaster whilst delivering on the referendum mandate, what happens next?
We muddle through. We pay the price for a poor decision to call a simple referendum on a complex questions after years of demonising and blaming the EU for UK government mistakes and unpopular decisions.
But there is also a case for the other approach – for using Brexit as a moment to bring about the change that Britain needs. If we are to embark on fundamental changes, we must first frankly acknowledge our problems. The rancour over the referendum, plus the fundamental ambivalence by the people who won the vote makes the acknowledgment of problems near impossible but it is the only way to make something positive, to turn the sow’s ears into silk.